Our Manifesto

Why uncertainty?

  1. Uncertainty is guaranteed. Nothing in this world is certain. The unexpected happens every day.
  2. Awareness of uncertainty helps us prepare for the unexpected, prevent and manage risks, and not fool ourselves.
  3. Honest expression of uncertainty helps us cooperate with others more efficiently by sharing the most accurate picture of reality we currently have.
  4. Putting numbers on uncertainty helps us think about it and express it more clearly.
  5. Regular practice can sharpen our uncertainty-wrangling skills and help us become better friends, leaders and decision-makers.

In a world where predictability and control are often valued above all else, expressing uncertainty is hard. It is viewed by the majority of our society as a sign of weakness, lack of knowledge, or indecisiveness. Especially leaders and decision-makers are under a big pressure toward having answers and being confident and in control. Expressing uncertainty can also make us vulnerable to criticism or misunderstanding, and can negatively impact our credibility or reputation. Certainty is much simpler and more comfortable. Certainty makes us feel smart and competent. Certainty makes us stay in the easily comprehensible black and white world.

Perhaps the most robust finding in the psychology of judgement is that people are overconfident.
(DeBondt & Thaler, 1995)

At the same time we live in a world of the rapid pace of technological, economic, societal and cultural changes. More than ever we need the ability to function in circumstances where we can’t rely on previous knowledge and experience, in circumstances where we don’t have enough information, and at times where the framework for making a decision is not entirely clear.

If we can not culturally afford to be openly uncertain, it prevents us from being transparent, cooperating with each other, and setting realistic expectations. Acknowledging uncertainty  encourages exploration of different possibilities, helps us navigate through challenging questions and make the best decision possible. We believe that it is important for all individuals, companies, organizations and the world at large to be able to embrace uncertainty as a powerful force. A first step toward that is making it easy for anyone to express uncertainty.

We teach our children the mathematics of certainty—geometry and trigonometry—but not the mathematics of uncertainty, statistical thinking. [...] Even experts, shockingly, are not trained how to communicate risks to the public in an understandable way.
(Gerd Gigerenzer, 2003)

This is the reason why we have established Confido (Latin for with trust). We want to support all those who want to resist the cultural and personal temptation of a black and white view of the world, who bravely face uncertainty and turn it to the advantage of themselves and their circle of concern.

As a first step we provide a free web-based tool for open communication of uncertainty to all kinds of groups and organizations in order to improve their collaboration and strategic decision-making. We plan to add more capabilities to promote the power of uncertainty in the future.

Why are we so excited about uncertainty and devote our time to is promotion?

Firstly realizing and accepting uncertainty encourages critical thinking. It challenges us to question our assumptions and beliefs. It makes us more open to other people’s views. It prevents black and white thinking and polarization. It leads to a conscious risk awareness, strategic decision-making and risk prevention from potential catastrophes.

Secondly, if the right approach is taken, uncertainty leads to acceptance of perspectives of multiple players and people of different expertise. Tools for expressing uncertainty can improve collaboration among such people and change difficult and complex challenges into new opportunities for growth and progress.

Let's collaborate.

Get to meet the Confido team and discuss how our tools or interactive workshops can benefit your organization. We will be also happy to talk about research collaboration or the educational aspects of spreading awareness of uncertainty.

Book a call