Take uncertainty into account.
Get superior data.
Facing strategic or risky decision? Use Confido and check out not only what your group thinks, but also how sure it is. Fast. Secure. Simplified for all. And the best part? It is free.
Get Confido now
Take advantage of Confido in a variety of situations:
Use Confido as a forecasting app, run an internal forecasting tournament and find out who the best forecasters in your organization are, so you know who to turn to at times of uncertainty and crisis. Forecasting tournaments with interesting questions can also serve as a great team-building activity. They can help spread the culture of experssing uncertainty within your org.
Meetings and strategic decision-making
Get a quick overview of group's estimates or beliefs during meetings to speed up discussion and prevent the influence of the first speaker on others. Set your goals or define risks and uncertainties and share them through Confido with anyone inside or outside your organization to get the most accurate belief or estimate. Confido secures your data, so it can also be used in a government setting.
Personal forecasting and calibration
If I go to this party, will I meet at least one new person I will like?
If I quit my job now, will I manage to get hired again within three months?
Find out how well you are calibrated in different areas of life. You can clearly see if you are overconfident or underconfident when facing uncertain situations. Get better at predicting your own future in order to make better decisions.
Talks and calibration trainings
Get the wisdom of your audience right away and make your talk more interactive; compare audience beliefs and estimates before and after the talk to see the influence of your talk. You can also use Confido asa calibration app and run your own interactive calibration trainings.
Create your question easily and choose from a variety of options
You can set a schedule
for the question – when it opens (starts accepting answers)
, closes (ends accepting answers)
, when is it scored and when should it be resolved. You can also set a default schedule for the whole room, useful e.g. when doing a
Decide who will see the group prediction. Whether it's just you, or everyone after they answer the question themselves, or everyone immediately regardless of whether they provided an answer.
Decide if you want comments to be part of your question.
Features for providing estimates
Provide your answer just by two clicks
Confido prevents anchoring and enables providing your estimate both with a slider and numerically.
Organize your uncertainty questions according to their topic or audience
Sleek question management design will help you to have all kinds of different uncertainty projects and questions in one spot.
Audience specific rooms
Do you want to share different questions with different groups of people in your institution, or with external advisors?
Create different rooms for different audiences. Some of your rooms can be public, some can be private according to your preference.
Topic specific rooms
Do you want to compare how well you are calibrated in your personal versus professional questions? Or in different areas? Just place different questions in different rooms to measure your calibration or group calibration for different topics separetely.
And share your rooms with anyone you want
Confido User management allows difefrent settings
Create a workspace for your organization and invite all your collegues
Whether you have a team of 2 or 2000, your organizational workspace can serve well for internal forecasting as well as for better coordination and meeting acceleration.
Add external collaborators and give them full or limited access
Your external collaborators can be forecasters or viewers only. You decide about their role.
Create an invite link to share questions with multiple people
You can for example share the link via a chat, message board, mailing list or even publicly on your website to invite people.
Invite an anonymous crowd by projecting a QR code
You can easily use Confido during a presentation or workshop (for example calibration training).
Discover cutting-edge calibration curves
Confido shows you your calibration – a measure of how the confidence of your predictions matches their actual accuracy.
Calibration curves for both yes/no and numeric questions
Calibration curves for different rooms as well as the whole workspace
Calibration curves for you personally as well as the whole group of people who provided estimates
Confido - forecasting, estimation and calibration tool step by step
How to get started
Get your Confido workspace and log in
First, request a workspace for free.
You will get a confirmation e-mail within 24 hours after your request. If not, check your spam folder (and reach out to us if that did not help).
Then visit your chosen subdomain (workspace-name).confido.tools in your browser and log in using the email you have provided in your workspace request.
Create your first room
Once you are in you in your new workspace, it is completely empty. You have to create your first room. (Every question has to be placed in a room.)
Create your first question
Once you have your room, you can start with creating your own questions. Beware, if you want to see how well calibrated you are, do not forget to set a score date for your question.
Provide your estimate and/or share question with others
Once your question is created you can provide your own estimate and also compare your estimate with others (if you invite them to your workspace).
Observe your calibration
Learn from your own judgement and also check if you are over- or under-confident compared to others you shared questions with.
Confido app FAQ
Frequently asked questions
How long does it take to get my workspace?
We will create your workspace and send you an email with instructions within 24 hours after your request. If you have not received it by then, check your spam folder.
How do I log into my workspace?
Visit your workspace subdomain (workspace-name).confido.tools and you will be able to log in using the email you have provided when requesting the workspace.
How much does Confido cost?
Confido is free to use. If you need a special feature or you want to support the development of something specific, please contact us. We will provide you with a cost estimate.
What should I know about forecasting and dealing with uncertainty before I start using the Confido app?
If you have never heard of forecasting, we strongly recommend you read the book Superforecasting
by Philip Tetlock or watch this short video
Can I use the Confido app in the classroom?
Definitely. Confido is designed to be very user-friendly and was already used for a forecasting tournament and a forecasting course at a high school and a Summer Academy. We have also developed demo versions of Confido edu –different estimation exercises for high schoolers.
Can we use Confido within a government department or agency?
Definitely. We do not collect and sell any data. Confido is open source and allows you to self-host your workspace on your own infrastructure in to have full control over your data. In the past Confido hosted a tournament at Dutch government.