The Confido Institute's
Timeline
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April 2022
First experiments using the principles of judgmental forecasting
We created the first demo of Confido, with which we experiment on using the principles of judgmental forecasting to better coordinate groups and get feedback from organizations addressing global existential risks. We organize our first interactive workshop.
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July 2022
Confido Institute is established
We raise funding and establish the Confido Institute with the goal of bringing the demo to life for any organization interested in it.
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August 2022
Curriculum for high school students and the demo version Confido edu
We create practical and theoretical exercises for working with uncertainty and forecasting, which we test in an educational workshop for high school students. In doing so, we create a beta version of Confido Edu.
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October 2022
Confido 0.1 is published
The app Confido 0.1 is being developed very quickly based on a request from the Dutch Ministry of Water and Infrastructure for the purpose of organizing an internal forecasting tournament.
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May 2023
Confido 1.0 is published
The app Confido 1.0 is published and offered freely. It builds on Confido 0.1 with a major UX redesign and feedback from early Confido 0.1 users.
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January 2024
Confido 2.0 is published
The app Confido 2.0 is published and offered freely. It includes calibration curves, scoring and symmetric as well as asymmetric distributions for numeric range questions.
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January 2025
Public workshops on reasoning under uncertainty
We launched a ready-to-run workshop program covering general forecasting skills as well as tailored sessions where organizations forecast the specific questions they face.
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September 2026
Predictive processing workshop
Our first experimental workshop on predictive processing and decision-making in everyday life.
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November 2026
Future of work workshop
Our first public workshop on the future of work and AI’s impact on the job market.
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November 2026
Confido 3.0 is published
Confido 3.0 lets anyone upload their slides and run interactive presentations and meetings that tap into the wisdom of the crowd in real time. It also supports large-scale forecasting tournaments, with scoring broken down by participant and by question. This version also has a built-in calibration exercise for both individual and group calibration training.
The institute was established as a result of positive response to experiments we did in the area of forecasting in 2022. We were able to demonstrate that the principles of judgmental forecasting can be applied to a wide range of other situations and that uncertainty communication itself can significantly improve human coordination and cooperation.
The aim of the institute is to conduct research and experimental activities in the field of uncertainty communication and to openly share our theoretical and practical results with both the professional and non-professional public in order to have a positive impact and co-create a better coordinated society.
Human progress has always been driven by new cultural norms. The scientific method gave us a systematic way to understand the world, and it transformed medicine, technology and nearly every part of our lives. Freedom of speech taught us not to punish disagreement, and that lets a society spot and correct its mistakes quickly.
We believe the next such step is openly communicating uncertainty. When people and institutions say not just what they think, but how sure they are, we coordinate better and prevent risks before they turn into crises.
At Confido Institute, that’s the norm we’re working to build. We develop free software tools and run workshops on reasoning under uncertainty, forecasting, predictive processing and the future of work.