Facing uncertainty in everyday life?
You were planning to go to a party, but now that you’re about to go, you don’t feel like going?
And when you get over yourself and go, will you be glad you went? Or conversely, will you be unhappy that you didn’t listen to your inner voice and stay home?
Uncertain situations like the one above tend to repeat
And it’s good to know how often we can trust our intuitive judgement and when it will instead help us to better calibrate (find out how uncertain we feel about a given decision compared to how often we really regret making it).
Ask yourself how certain you feel about the given decision
For example, in this particular case, before the party you can create a “Social life” room in the Confido workspace and create a question: “Will I be glad today after the party that I overcame myself and went?” And provide your level of certainty, e.g. 68 %.
And then resolve the question based on what actually happened
When back home from the party, you resolve the question as “yes” if you were happy that you joined the party, or resolve the question as “no” if you think it would have been better to stay home.
Your latest prediction will be used for the calculation of your calibration. If you updated it after you already knew the correct answer, set a score time before that moment, and the prediction from that time will be used instead.
Answer more questions about a given topic and find out about your patterns
After five to ten social activities you ask and resolve your questions about, you will get your calibration curve (dark purple line). This line will show you how much you are underestimating or overestimating your judgment about the given topic or if you are well-calibrated (you are well-calibrated when the dark purple line matches the green line of perfect calibration).
Ask any questions you are able to quantify
How long will I last in the job I’m starting now?
How many times a year do I stay up all night straight?
If I spend Christmas at my parents’ house, will we have a fight?
If I babysit my sister’s dog, how many things in my home will she destroy?
One workspace, lots of different topics
You can sort the questions in Confido into different rooms by topic, so you can easily compare how well you are calibrated in different life circumstances (topics).
Track judgements of people around you as well
Maybe your partner or friends express themselves more confidently than they should. Request a Confido workspace for a group, family or couple and try to improve your judgements together.