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forecasting tournaments

Running a forecasting tournament can be an effective way to harness the collective intelligence of multiple participants, improve the accuracy of predictions, and generate valuable insights that can inform decision-making and improve organizational outcomes.

Forecasting tournaments are competitions in which participants submit predictions for future events, and the accuracy of their predictions is evaluated against the actual outcomes of those events. These tournaments can be organized by various entities, including academic institutions, private companies, or government agencies, and can cover a wide range of topics, from financial markets to political elections to sports competitions. Some organizations also employ this approach to gather data relevant to their industry. By asking their employees questions about their industry, these organizations not only identify the best forecasters within their institution but also gain insights into future events that are pertinent to their industry.

Typically, participants in a forecasting tournament are given a set of very specific questions to answer, each of which asks for a prediction about a specific event or outcome. These questions may be binary (yes or no) or numeric range (how many, how much, when) depending on the specific format of the tournament. Participants are usually allowed to revise their predictions up until a specified deadline, after which the actual outcomes of the events are revealed and the accuracy of the participants' predictions is evaluated.

The evaluation of accuracy can be done in a variety of ways, but typically involves comparing the participants' predictions to the actual outcomes using some sort of scoring system. The most common scoring system used in forecasting tournaments is the Brier score, which measures the average squared difference between the predicted probability of an event occurring and the actual outcome of that event. Other scoring systems may use different metrics, such as log-likelihood or precision-recall measures. In the Confido app the main organizer of the tournament can generate a CSV document and score the predictions according to their preference.

  1. Create specific yes-no or numeric questions about future
  2. Invite your employees
  3. Let them forecast
  4. Wait for resolution
  5. Generate CSV and find out who was the best
  6. Announce the winner

There are several advantages of running a forecasting tournament within your organization, including:

  1. Improved decision-making: Forecasting tournaments help participants hone their prediction skills, which can lead to better decision-making in various strategic domains within the organization.
  2. Collective intelligence: By aggregating forecasts from diverse participants, forecasting tournaments can produce more accurate predictions than any single individual, leveraging the wisdom of the crowd.
  3. Incentivizing learning: Tournaments often offer rewards or recognition for top performers, which can motivate participants to learn and improve their forecasting abilities.
  4. Identifying talent: Tournaments can help organizations identify individuals with exceptional forecasting abilities who may be valuable assets in strategic planning or other decision-making processes.
  5. Model development: Data generated from forecasting tournaments can be used to refine existing forecasting models or develop new ones, leading to more accurate and useful predictions.
  6. Encouraging collaboration: Tournaments can foster a spirit of collaboration among participants, as they often involve sharing insights, discussing methodologies, and learning from one another.
  7. Generating valuable data: The forecasts and accompanying data generated by tournaments can be useful for the organization itself
  8. Increased preparedness: By engaging in the practice of forecasting, individuals and organizations can become more prepared for future uncertainties, leading to more adaptive and resilient strategies.

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