forecasting tournaments

Find out who the best forecasters in your organization are and whose judgement you should know at the time of high uncertainty or crisis.

Take advantage of a forecasting tournament as an efficient team building activity and improve internal coordination and collaboration mechanisms within your org by establishing a culture of clear expression of uncertainty.

Forecasting tournaments can be organized in various entities, including academic institutions, private companies, or government agencies, and can cover a wide range of topics, from financial markets to political elections or sports competitions.

How to run a forecasting tournament

Forecasting tournament is a competition in which participants submit predictions for future events, and the accuracy of their predictions is evaluated against the actual outcomes of those events

1. Decide on the amount of questions

A forecasting tournament has between 15 to 100 questions in total. The fewer questions, the more luck will play a role in the tournament. The more questions you ask, the more relevant your results will be about who the best forecasters in your group are.
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But on the other hand, the more questions you ask, the more time consuming the tournament will be for you as an organizer and for the participants.
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A proven model is to post four questions every week for 6 weeks. This will cause the tournament participants to focus well on the given questions and not to be overwhelmed.

From our previous experience the average participant spends one hour answering one question.

If you have questions about tournament structure, please do not hesitate to contact us.
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2. Decide about the level of collaboration among participants

Will your forecasting question be answered by individuals? Or by teams? Or entire departments?

You can also decide if you want participants to provide comments on their forecasts (why they forecast what they forecast) and nurture a collaborative instead of competitive enviroment. (Best comments can be also rewarded after the tournament.)

3. Think about topics you would like to get better data about

You can not only find out who the best forecasters in your org are but you can also find out better data about the future of your industry. Therefore you can think about what kind of topics you would like to cover in your tournament.

Of course, you can also forecast just for fun - sports, fashion, celebrities etc.

4. Develop quantified questions about the future

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Once you have your Confido workspace, create a room "xxx forecasting tournament." Then add all your questions. Every forecasting question should be specific, clear and resolvable. You can also read more on what does a good forecasting question look like on our website.

For every forecasting question you can set a schedule: when it opens (will be seen by participants), when it closes (when forecatsing on this question ends) and when it will be scored.
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9. Resolve your questions

Once you know what the correct answer was, resolve the question. Participants usually prefer to answer questions that will resolve quite soon. Quick feedback will also help them improve as the tournament progresses.

In almost every tournament, at least one question cannot be resolved because of unclear definition and disputes.

10. Evaluate the accuracy of participants' forecasts

The evaluation of accuracy can be done in a variety of ways, but typically involves comparing the participants' predictions to the actual outcomes using some sort of scoring system.

The most common scoring system used in forecasting tournaments is the Brier score, which measures the average squared difference between the predicted probability of an event occurring and the actual outcome of that event. Other scoring systems may use different metrics, such as log-likelihood or precision-recall measures.

In the Confido app the main organizer of the tournament can generate a CSV export of all the predictions and use it to score the predictions according to their preference.

Get all the benefits from running a forecasting tournament

Improved decision-making

Forecasting tournaments help participants hone their prediction skills, which can lead to better decision-making in various strategic domains within the organization.

Collective intelligence

By aggregating forecasts from diverse participants, forecasting tournaments can produce more accurate predictions than any single individual, leveraging the wisdom of the crowd.

Incentivizing learning

Tournaments often offer rewards or recognition for top performers, which can motivate participants to learn and improve their forecasting abilities.

Identifying talent

Tournaments can help organizations identify individuals with exceptional forecasting abilities who may be valuable assets in strategic planning or other decision-making processes.

Encouraging collaboration

Tournaments can foster a spirit of collaboration among participants, as they often involve sharing insights, discussing methodologies, and learning from one another.

Generating valuable data

The forecasts and accompanying data generated by tournaments can be useful for the organization itself.

Confido for

forecasting tournaments

How to run a forecasting tournament

1. Decide on the amount of questions

2. Decide about the level of collaboration among participants

3. Think about topics you would like to get better data about

4. Develop quantified questions about the future

5. Inform your participants

6. Help your participants to prepare for the tournament

7. Start the tournament and share questions with your participants

8. Talk with participants

9. Resolve your questions

10. Evaluate the accuracy of participants' forecasts

11. Announce winners