Confido helps executives to formulate specific questions like: “How many clients will we have in China by 2026?” or “Will there be a new law completely banning nuclear power generation passed in EU by 2035?” and then share these questions with all stakeholders, who may have relevant information or perspective. These stakeholders then provide their best guess or belief including their level of confidence. This process helps organizations better understand and manage uncertainties, improve decision-making, and allocate resources effectively.
Here is why:
- Acknowledging uncertainty: Probabilistic thinking recognizes that the future is uncertain and that various outcomes can occur. This mindset helps organizations prepare for a wider range of possibilities and avoid being caught off guard by unexpected events.
- Reducing overconfidence: Considering probabilities can help decision-makers avoid overconfidence and foster humility, making them more open to alternative perspectives and new information.
- Encouraging risk assessment: Probabilistic thinking emphasizes the importance of evaluating risks, helping organizations identify potential threats and vulnerabilities and take appropriate measures to mitigate them.
- Improving resource allocation: By estimating the probabilities of various outcomes, organizations can better allocate their resources to address the most likely or impactful scenarios, thus maximizing returns on investment and minimizing losses.
- Facilitating communication: Probabilistic thinking can help clarify discussions among decision-makers by providing a common language and framework for evaluating uncertainty and potential outcomes.
- Supporting contingency planning: Considering the likelihood of different scenarios allows organizations to develop flexible plans that can be adapted in response to changing circumstances, enhancing resilience and agility.
- Mitigating cognitive biases: Probabilistic thinking can help counteract cognitive biases such as confirmation bias, anchoring, and availability heuristic, leading to more objective and accurate decision-making.
- Enhancing stakeholder confidence: Transparently considering probabilities in strategic decision-making can increase stakeholder trust and confidence in an organization's ability to navigate complex situations and uncertainties.
How to do it:
- Create a specific question about a goal you have set or risk your org may face
- Share the question with employees and/or experts connected to your industry by email or link
- Observe their collective wisdom
- Make a decision