We live in a very uncertain and complex world, where governments and organizations often have to make decisions that have significant consequences for large numbers of people.
Probabilistic thinking can help them to make better decisions. It can help decision-makers to understand the potential outcomes of their actions and make informed decisions.
Perhaps the most robust finding in the psychology of judgement is that people are overconfident.
Probability can also help these organizations communicate the likelihood of different outcomes to the public, which can improve transparency and trust. Additionally, it can help organizations analyze data and make predictions, which can be useful for planning and policy-making. In short, using probabilities can help governments and organizations make better decisions and increase transparency and trust.
Confido tools can also help these organizations to find their own best-calibrated individuals (forecasters), who can be turned to in moments of uncertainty and crisis.
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